Economisch weerbericht (7): Stuiteren op de bodem?

Als de beurzen de bodem zo’n beetje hebben bereikt, hoe lang duurt het stuiteren daar dan? Serieuze beleggers stappen nu zeker nog niet in, maar wachten ten minste tot Obama’s Amerika officieel uit de startblokken is. Gelukkig had de OESO deze week voor Nederland een prettig bericht: volgend jaar maar 0,2 procent krimp, een derde van wat andere Europese landen moeten incasseren. Het feestje van de depressieliefhebbers gaat niet door, schreef Remco Tomesen deze week in De Pers. Maar wie de Oostenrijkse Enginomen kent, een no-nonsense stroming in de economie, weet dat die het daar absoluut niet mee eens zijn. Zij voorspellen een aanhoudende periode van stuiteren, maar dan wel steeds door elke tijdelijke bodem heen:

‘Fasten your seat belts for a year or two of grueling market crashes each followed by ever more desperate and damaging government intervention and short teaser market rallies before the Central Bank ultimately gets the upper hand and hyper-inflates our currency along with all financial assets and commodities. I expect we will follow the same path as most countries who have traveled this path before. Hyperinflation depression conditions will last for a number of years before normalcy resumes.’

Jaren te gaan dus, voordat “normalcy”, een enigszins normale gang van zaken, weer terugkeert. Nou ben ik erg van de serendipteit, en laat het toeval nu willen, dat ik verleden week het pocketboekje “The Making of a World Power” (1960) op de kop tikte. Het is het vierde deeltje uit een reeks die historicus Paul Angle samenstelde onder de titel “The American Reader”, een soort “Reader’s Digest” om het volk historisch besef bij te brengen. Het laatste hoofdstuk (p. 165-211) heet “Normalcy” (tussen aanhalingstekens) en geeft impressies uit de periode 1920-1937. Het is een spiegel van wat we momenteel aan den lijve ondervinden, en ongetwijfeld de Oostenrijkse Enginomen uit het hart gegrepen. Lees even mee met de volgende vier citaten. Ze schetsen de context van boom, crash en depressie uit de periode 1920-1937:

1920-1927 The Automobile Changes the Pattern of Living

The first real automobile appeared in Middletown in 1900. At the close of 1923 there were 6,221 passenger cars in the city, one for every 6.1 person. The increase in surfaced roads and in closed cars is rapidly making the car a year-round tool for leisure-time as well as getting-a-living activities. The automobile has apparently unsettled the habit of careful saving for some families. After selling his car a businessman explained: “My car, counting depreciation and everything, was costing mighty nearly $100.00 a month, and my wife and I sat down together the other night and just figured that we’re getting along, and if we’re to have anything later on, we’ve just got to begin to save.” Automobiles are bought at the expense of clothing: “We’d rather do without clothes than give up the car,” said one mother of nine children. “No matter how they look, we just poke ‘em in the car and take ‘em along.” The threat which the automobile presents to some anxious parents is suggested by the fact that of thirty girls brought before the juvenile court charged with “sex crimes”, nineteen were listed as having commited the offense in an automobile.

1928-1929 The Boom

The spirit of change and adventure did not stop with inventions and manners and morals; it invaded the securities market. The feeling spread that the future of the country was unlimited. Every company in every industry had golden years ahead. To enjoy certain wealth one needed only to buy stocks and the expanding economy would do the rest. The result was the wildest boom in the country’s history. Thousands speculated – and won, too – without the slightest knowledge of the nature of the companies upon whose fortunes they were relying. Grocesr, motormen, plumbers, semstresses, and speakeasy waiters were in the market. Even the revolting intellectuals were there: loudly as the might lament the depressing effects of standardization and mass production oupon American life, they found themselves quite ready to reap the fruits thereof. The Big Bull Market had become a national mania.

1929 The Crash

The boom could not last. Stock market prices broke in March, 1929, but recoveredto rise to new hights despite signs of trouble in various industries. On Thursday, October 24, the market crashed with a suddenness and severity that gave notice of the end of the bull market.

1930-1937 The Depression

After the market crash, industry slowed down. Billions in purchasing power had disappeared almost overnight. What purpose could there be in producing cars and radios and automatic washing machines when millions were wondering where they could find next month’s rent? With decreased production men and women were laid off; potential buyers became fewer and fewer. By 1932 the United States found itself in the grip of want and suffering. At the very bottom of the economic scale the conditions may perhaps best be suggested by a quotation from Louis V. Armstrong’s “We Too Are the People,” and the scene is Chicago in the late spring of 1932: “One vivid, gruesome moment of those dark days we shall never forget. We saw a crowd of some fifty men fighting over a barrel of garbage outside the back door of a restaurant. American citizens fighting for scraps of food like animals!”