De financiële kant van de Facebook IPO

19 mei 2012, 16:08

Normaal gesproken wagen wij ons bij Marketingfacts niet gauw aan financiële analyses. Maar de case van de Facebook-beursgang is niet zomaar any event. Bovendien bood Byung Koo Mulder aan om zijn licht over deze IPO te laten schijnen. En daarvoor bieden wij hem graag de ruimte. De hamvraag: gaat Facebook z'n uitgifteprijs van 38 dollar en market capitalisation van ruim 100 miljard waarmaken?

Deze gastblog is geschreven door Byung Koo Mulder, o.a. directeur van Mulder FX. Byung Koo is o.a. te vinden op Twitter.

Voor iedereen zijn goede vrienden van onschatbare waarde, maar sinds vrijdag hebben ze toch een waarde. Want sinds gisteren kunnen we een aandeel kopen van de vriendensite Facebook, genoteerd op de beurs (Nasdaq). De introductieprijs was 38 dollar en na een vertraging van de handel en een zeer volatiele sessie is het aandeel gesloten op 38.23 dollar, een schamele plus van 0.61 procent. De hoogste koers op de eerste dag net boven de 42 dollar.

Misvatting

Laat ik meteen een grote misopvatting tackelen bij het algemene publiek, nl. dat een aandeel op de eerste dag heel hard moet stijgen. Ja, dat is leuk voor de kopers van het aandeel, want die pakken gelijk winst. Maar het is minder prettig voor de verkopers, want zij hadden meer kunnen krijgen (red: zie ook Herbert Blankesteijns heldere uitleg hierover). De taak van begeleidende (zaken)banken is om een zo goed mogelijke introductieprijs vast te stellen tussen vraag en aanbod. De taak van de zakenbanken is niet voor spektakel zorgen.

Het werd niet het verwachte spektakel, zeker niet als men het vergelijkt met andere tech IPO’s. Linkedin steeg 109 procent op de eerste dag, Groupon steeg 30 procent. Facebook kan hoop putten uit het feit dat beide aandelen nu veel lager staan dan na de eerste dag. Alleen de vraag is, gaat Facebook het lukken om het huidige niveau te behouden of is het dé nieuwe zeepbel?

De voortekenen zijn/waren niet optimistisch, er worden/werden vraagtekens gezet bij de hoge introductie koers van 38 dollar, het is een pittig geprijsd aandeel.

Even wat getallen om het wat inzichtelijker te maken.

Als we de 100 van Facebook vergelijken met de andere ondernemingen, zou men kunnen denken dat de waardering niet klopt en/of buiten proportie is. Alleen we vergelijken Facebook met ondernemingen die al tientallen jaren hun naam gevestigd hebben. Als je dan toch wilt vergelijken, kunnen we dat het beste doen met Google. Google ging naar de beurs in 2004 en introductieprijs was 85 dollar. Als we de financiele cijfers van 2003 erop naslaan, levert dat een P/E ratio op van 67 bij introductie. We leven nu 8 jaar later, is dan 100 veel te hoog?

Verwachting

Even een uitstapje naar voetbal. Het EK komt eraan, dus aan voetbal ontkomen we hedentendage ook niet. Kunnen we het vergelijken met een topvoetballer? Niemand dacht dat er ooit meer zou worden betaald dan voor Zidane in 2001 (73 miljoen euro), maar toch ging in 2009 Cristiano Ronaldo voor 94 miljoen euro naar Real Madrid. Wat nou als Real Madrid, of elke andere club, Sergio Agüero nu zou willen kopen? Precies nadat hij de winnende binnen heeft geschoten in de beslissende wedstrijd en daarmee Manchester City na tientallen jaren weer een kampioenschap heeft bezorgd? Breng maar 120 tot 150 miljoen euro mee! Je koopt altijd de verwachting; bij voetbalspelers, maar ook bij aandelen.

Weer terug naar Facebook, de ophef over een hoge P/E-ratio is echt afhankelijk van de toekomst van Facebook. Laten we eens kijken naar scenario 2015 en verder. Om de extreem hoge verwachtingen waar te maken, moet bij een 'normalere' P/E-ratio van 20 (zoals Google) de nettowinst ruim 5 miljard dollar gaan bedragen. Momenteel kent Facebook een nettowinst van 973 miljoen dollar, gebaseerd op 2011-cijfers. De nettowinst zal de komende jaren dus moeten vervijfvoudigen om enigszins recht te doen aan de huidige prijs per aandeel van 38 dollar.

De vraag moet dus luiden: zien we Facebook dat realiseren? Alle ophef en discussies over de beursgang is eigenlijk niet zo van belang, de vraag is wat de strategie van Facebook gaat worden. Als Facebook de huidige strategie blijft doorvoeren, zal de nettowinst in 2015 zeker geen 5 miljard euro zijn. De advertentie-inkomsten zorgen voor het leeuwendeel van de omzet, alleen die zullen niet exponentieel groeien. Zeker niet na het laatste bericht dat GM heeft aangegeven dat adverteren op Facebook te weinig oplevert. Een zwaluw maakt nog geen zomer, maar … waar rook is vuur.

Verdienmodellen

Als ik het daarnaast persoonlijk trek, kan ik de mening wel delen van GM. Persoonlijk heb ik nog nooit op een advertentie geklikt tijdens het checken van statusupdates van vrienden of bij het zelf plaatsen van foto’s of mijn eigen statusupdates. Advertenties vallen niet erg op bij Facebook, allemaal om niet de gebruiker voor het hoofd te stoten. Alleen adverteerders zijn er niet blij mee. Een lastige situatie voor Facebook.

Facebook heeft een nieuw mainstream verdienmodel nodig, naast de huidige advertentie-inkomsten. Helaas voor Facebook, maar van Google Adsense gaan ze niet winnen (red: Facebook lanceerde onlangs een AdSense-concurrent). In mijn ogen zullen ze op overnamepad moeten, ze moeten een ‘dienst’ kopen, waar gebruikers het vanzelfsprekend achten dat daar betaald voor moet worden. De aanschaf van Instagram en Lightbox vallen daar niet onder, deze sluiten aan bij het verdiepen van de huidige strategie.

Google nam in de afgelopen 10 jaar meer dan 100 bedrijven over. Facebook wilt zelf pionier zijn in alles, maar het lijkt mij verstandig om naar, investmentwise, Google te kijken.

Facebook heeft door de beursgang een goed gevulde overnamekas. Facebook zal op dit vlak ook zeker iets gaan doen het komend jaar al, is mijn verwachting. Het zou best eens kunnen zijn dat het kopen van aandelen van mogelijke overnameprooien een betere belegging is dan het aandeel Facebook komend jaar.

Even wat overname kandidaten, die tevens kunnen bijdragen aan opzetten van nieuw mainstream verdienmodel(len):

  • Netflix: interessante kandidaat in mijn ogen; het is een onderneming in zwaar weer, met een lage aandelenkoers laag van 70 dollar, die ooit boven de 300 dollar heeft gestaan. Het concept kan wellicht weer een boost krijgen met een ‘gelikte’ implementatie door Facebook. Netflix-uitbreiding naar veel meer landen gaat sneller door Facebook. Overnameprijs: 6 miljard dollar.

  • Groupon: mits de aandelenkoers verder zakt, dan kan dit een mooie prooi worden voor Facebook. Directe implementatie kan leiden tot meer omzet, dan nu separaat naar Groupon-website te gaan.

  • eigen VOIP-belservice opzetten.

  • Spotify: muziek streamen zal nog meer een vogelvlucht nemen.

  • Dropbox: cloud is hot.

  • Merchandising: Facebook is een merk/brand.

  • etc, etc, etc.

Er zijn tenslotte nog wat gebeurtenissen die in de gaten gehouden moeten worden voor ontwikkeling aandeel Facebook. Over zes maanden is de lock-up periode van de Facebook-werknemers over, ze mogen dan hun opties/aandelen uitoefenen. Gezien de huidige financiele situatie en niet zo veelbelovende eerste dag van Facebook op de beurs, schat ik zo in dat veel medewerkers dit weekend hopen dat het alvast zover was. De verkoopdruk op het aandeel zal dus toenemen over zes maanden. Het is een heel technisch verhaal, maar wel leuk om te noemen voor het geval we hier in Nederland ooit weer eens grote IPO hebben.

Verkoopstrategieën

The Wealthfront Simulator geeft verschillende scenarios bij IPO’s:

Verkoopstrategieën:

  • Verkoop 10% elk kwartaal voor de komende 10 kwartalen

  • Verkoop 50% meteen en daarna 10% per kwartaal

  • Verkoop alle aandelen na lock up periode

Bij tech-aandelen kan de eerste strategie erg lonen. Nemen we weer als voorbeeld Google: men heeft in de eerste 2,5 jaar op verschillende momenten aandelen verkocht tegen verschillende koersen. Daarmee is gecasht, maar ook meegeprofiteerd met de enorme koersstijging, pyschologisch gezien de beste keuze. Men heeft pocket money, maar men kan ook nog opscheppen op feestjes over de koersstijging. Iedereen begrijpt dat ‘gokken’ op niets verkopen veel meer risico’s met zich meebrengt.

Ook interessant zijn de SEC filings, de tegenhanger van de Nederlandse registermelding bij het AFM. De SEC filings worden per kwartaal gepublisheerd. Over een kwartaal is duidelijk of investeringsfondsen op de eerste dag wel veel meer aandelen hebben verkocht. Dit kan dan voor verkoopdruk zorgen op het aandeel Facebook.

Zakenbanken zullen voorlopig de koers wel ondersteunen, hun reputatie staat op het spel. Ik ben benieuwd hoe laag/hoog de koers staat eind 2012. Al met al zal de beursgang van Facebook misschien wel nog meer vragen oproepen dan er al waren vóór de beursgang. De tijd zal het leren.

Deze blog is geschreven op persoonlijke titel en is bedoeld als achtergrondinformatie over de financiële markten. De informatie in deze blog is niet bedoeld als beleggingsadvies of als aanbeveling tot het doen van een transactie. Byung Koo Mulder heeft geen belang bij uw transactiegedrag en is een compleet onafhankelijke en objectieve blogger. Hoewel deze blog is samengesteld met de grootst mogelijke zorgvuldigheid, wordt geen aansprakelijkheid voor de onvolledigheid, onjuistheid of gevolgen van deze blog aanvaard. Raadpleeg meerdere bronnen en neem zelf beslissingen. Voor vragen, neem contact op via mijn Twitter-account.

Onder deze gastblogaccount schrijven auteurs die geen blogger zijn van Marketingfacts. Heb jij een blog die je wilt delen, of wil je graag blogger worden, stuur dan een tweet of mail naar de redactie.

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215 Reacties

    iFreek

    Met deze koers/winst verhouding gaat men zondermeer uit van een winstgroei, waardoor de k/w weer naar de normale verhouding van +/- 10 gaat. Hierdoor is er geen ruimte meer voor koersstijging of winstdaling. Er valt weinig te verdienen op het aandeel.

    Bovendien is het businessmodel zwak en het risico dus hoog.

    Koop geen aandelen omdat je het bedrijf hot of leuk vindt, maar omdat het een goede investering lijkt in een goed gespreide portfolio.


    19 mei 2012 om 17:21
    Byung Koo Mulder

    Beste Sander,

    In de blog benoem ik het heel kort in de laatste alinea. Het zou anders een zeer ‘technisch’ verhaal worden. Je hebt zeker gelijk, de zakenbanken hebben de koers niet willen laten zakken onder de $38 vrijdag. Zie mijn twitter, voor de foto!

    De ‘zandzakken’ lagen er op $38. Ruim 10 miljoen aandelen, wat betekent dat je dus ruim 400 miljoen USD nodig zou hebben om deze barriere te slechten.

    Een kanttekening, Morgan Stanley is de grootste underwriter, maar het steunen van de koers hoeft niet alleen van Morgan Stanley te komen. Samen met Goldman Sachs en JP Morgan hebben ze 73%. Aangezien JP Morgan laatst een handelsverlies moest melden van 2 miljard USD, zullen zij waarschijnlijk aan de zijlijn hebben gestaan.

    Wat ik al aangaf in desbetreffende alinea, zakenbanken zullen zeker de eerste dag, niet publiekelijk af willen gaan. Niet alleen Morgan Stanley, maar alle underwriters.

    Kunstmatig kan je het niet noemen, want het zijn werkelijk verhandelbare aandelen. Hoe meer er verkocht gaat worden op $38, hoe meer aandelen dus de zakenbanken/underwriters van Facebook op de plank hebben liggen. Logisch is ook dat dit natuurlijk niet eeuwig vol te houden is.

    Het voordeel kan zijn dat er nu vanuit de G8 top wat positieve geluiden komen en tevens dat in Griekenland, de pro-euro partijen wat aan terrein winnen. Dit kan morgen dus voor opluchting zorgen en dat kan weer betekenen dat ook een aandeel Facebook omhoog wordt meegezogen.

    Dan hoeven de zakenbanken $38 ‘line’ niet te verdedigen.

    Om zeer ‘technisch’ te eindigen, elk aandeel die zakenbanken nu of hebben gekregen op $38, betekent dat er dus ook mensen zijn die de aandelen hebben verkocht. Als deze naked short zijn gegaan, bestaat er een risico dat er een short squeeze kan komen in het aandeel Facebook. Inside information: zakenbanken hebben een hekel aan verliezen.

    Binnenkort een goed ontvangen persbericht ‘Facebook neemt…….. over’ en het aandeel staat $50 omdat de ‘shorters’ van nu, overal elkaar heen vallen om hun verliezen te dekken. Dan denken particulieren beleggers, toch maar aandelen Facebook kopen en wie zijn dan de verkopende partijen? De zakenbanken die nog wat aandeeltjes Facebook hadden liggen op $38.

    Wilde een wat ‘luchtige’ blog schrijven over de hype Facebook IPO. Marketingfacts is meer gericht op marketing/social media dan alle levels van de financiele markt.

    Schroom niet om te reageren of jouw mening te ventileren. Succes en ik hou de blog in de gaten.


    19 mei 2012 om 22:34
    Byung Koo Mulder

    Edwin,

    Bedankt voor je reactie en bijdrage. Leuk om te lezen.

    Waarom Amazon niet is opgenomen, is en denk dat jij het ook weet dat de huidige P/E alleen nu zo hoog is, omdat Amazon de Kindle verkoopt met verlies. P/E in de jaren voorafgaand aan introductie Kindle, was tussen de 30-60 voor Amazon.

    Link met voetballers was met een knipoog bedoeld. 🙂

    Ben het totaal niet met je eens dat een koers enkel en alleen op toekomstige cashflows zijn gebaseerd. Er zit altijd een verwachting bij (toekomst), op je moet een glazen bol op je bureau hebben staan. Daarnaast is sentiment zeker een bepalende factor die niets met cashflows te maken heeft.

    Betreft lock up periode zoals vermeld in de blog, staat voor medewerkers en dat is correct (180 dagen). Jij hebt gelijk dat voor insiders (institutionele partijen) dit is verlaagd naar 90 dagen. Voor medewerkers niet.

    Absoluut er leiden altijd meer wegen naar Rome. Een ander scenario kan ook leiden tot het doel. We zijn er in ieder geval met elkaar eens dat ze wel IETS moeten gaan doen.

    Kwinkslag, net als wij het altijd beter weten dan Bert van Marwijk en Nederland 16 miljoen bondscoaches kent in tijden van een EK of WK. Zijn er vast miljoenen over de wereld die nu weten wat Facebook moet gaan doen.

    We gaan het zien!


    20 mei 2012 om 11:23
    Online No-No

    ja ja ja .. maareh .. wat vindt Nina Brink ervan?

    serieus:

    bijna alle platform startups beginnen met advertising of subscription verdienmodellen als ze genoeg gebruikers hebben.

    De vraag is dus niet ‘kan Facebook x meer advertenties verkopen?’ maar juist ‘welk subscriptionmodel gaat Facebook introduceren?’

    Hun lange termijn visie is een ‘sociaal internet’ en hun grootste beperking is: het huidige internet.

    Daarom steken ze geld in een mobiel data netwerk en daarom bouwen ze partnerships met wereldwijde merken om hun socialbusiness platform te zijn.

    Als je kijkt naar hun staffing zijn het vooral developers, geen klantenservice. Een handjevol verkopers die de partnerships managen. The money is not in the users, its in the platform.

    dus.. is 38,- teveel? Is GM’s berichtgeving alarmerend? Vooral de mensen in de oude economie zullen dat zo zien.


    21 mei 2012 om 08:05
    Shamier Coffie

    Bedank voor de post heel interessant!


    21 mei 2012 om 10:15
    Byung Koo Mulder

    De koers van Facebook noteert meer dan 10% lager vandaag!

    Op weg naar de onderkant van de allereerste bandbreedte, $28-$35?

    Het kan snel gaan als beleggers hun vertrouwen verliezen. Nu ze genoteerd zijn aan de Nasdaq zullen ze dit ook gaan ondervinden. Early bird investeerders reageren anders. 🙂


    21 mei 2012 om 15:43
    Hans Belt

    Heel veel technisch en met vakkennis geschreven en gereageerd. Als ik het nou eens simpeler bekijk zeg ik als beleggingsleek dat dit nooit goed kan gaan. Wat is het product van Facebook? Een website waarop iedereen zich gratis kan aanmelden. Hoe kan een bedrijf 100 Miljard waard zijn als ze hun product weggeven aan de consument? Een zeepbel dus!


    30 juli 2012 om 10:02
    Jaap Tilstra

    Tja. En zeepbelenduiken naar 40% onder de IPO of gaan zelf nog lager. En dan te bedenen dat de lock-up al voor de eerste 450 miljoen aandelen op 15 augustus staat gepland. En dan nog nog maar net te spreken over de 1.3 miljard aandelen die op 3 november (gelukkig geen vrijdag dan) loskomen… pfff..

    En dan te bedenken dat er ook nog 400 mln Restricted Stock Units in omloop zijn. Wat gaat het personeel doen als ze niet gecompeneerd wordt ??? Gaan ze FB verlaten of zal FB de kassalade open moeten trekken ?

    100 keer de winst is ook absurd voor dit soort hypefondsen.


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