Feiten & cijfers online media VS
Geoff Ramsey (CEO eMarketer) presenteerde tijdens de AD:TECH in San Fransisco vooral erg veel cijfers en grafieken.
Online ad spending
Geoff started his presentation off showing eMarketer’s numbers for estimated actual online ad spending from 1999-2002, along with projections for 2003-2005. The numbers look like this:
1999: $4.6 billion
2000: $8.2 billion
2001: $7.2 billion
2002: $6.0 billion
2003: $6.3 billion
2004: $6.8 billion
2005: $7.2 billion
The projections for 2003 notably indicate an end to the decline that began in 2001. A return to the peak levels of $8 billion reached in 2002 is not expected to occur until 2006.
Geoff then went on to estimate that there are 153 million people online, and 138 million of them are active, monthly users. (eMarketer does not do its own studies, but rather they look at a broad number of studies done by others to reach an estimate that they find reasonable. In this particular instance, studies measuring the number of active online users ranged from 178 million (Arbitron) to 113 million (Kagan)). The number of Internet users is estimated to be presently growing at the rate of 4-6% per year.
Comparative reach for various media was estimated at:
Radio & Television: 98% of households
Magazines: 84% of households
Cable TV: 67% of households
Internet: 68% of households in 2004
Newspapers: 55% of households
The online audience is estimated to spend approximately 65 minutes per day online, up 8% in the last six months. Certain segments spend considerably more than average: broadband users, teens, C-level executives, upper income/affluent, and at-work users. At some times of the day, the Internet beats all other media. During the 8:00 am – 11:00 am interval, the breakout (among Internet users) is:
The number of minutes spend online is increasing at an average rate of 8.2%, up to 65 minutes per user, but again this number fluctuates greatly depending on market segment. Newspaper only averages about 28 minutes per day per user. TV is seeing lower ratings; lower ad recall; more clutter; splintering audiences; and higher costs. Geoff quoted Bill Lamar, Jr., SVP Marketing, McDonalds as stating that “reaching our consumer targets is no longer TV driven. The days of spending hundreds of millions of dollars on TV advertising are over.”
Geoff noted that online users are hungry information-seekers that are in control of their online experience, and usually on a self-directed mission. When asked where they prefer to get their information regarding starting to learn about a product or service, 63% said Internet. 62% said Internet when asked about where they would go to learn about features and benefits of a product, and 61% indicated that the Internet is where they would go to learn about different brands.
When asked where they would go for different information in different industry segments, the percentage of people indicating that they would prefer to use the Internet was: Reference info (54%); Travel info (51%); Health info (39%); Product reviews (31%); Auto info (30%); Financial info (28%); Technology news (24%).
Geoff then went on to present his perspective on four trends that will “rock our world.”
Trend #1 = Broadband. Broadband has now reached a critical mass—numbers are estimated at 24.2 million households in 2003, 30.3 million in 2004, and 36.5 million in 2005. The current growth rate is 33%, and by 2005 it is predicted there is expected to be more broadband users
than dial-up users. Broadband users spend an average of 12.6 hours per week online, whereas dial-up users only spend 8.2 hours per week on average. Broadband usage pulls mostly from television time, with broadband users spending 35% of their media time with
television, 31% with radio, 27% with Internet, and 6% with newspapers.
Rich media ads are growing rapidly, going from 17.3% of all online ads served in Q1 2002 to 28.0% in Q1 2003 to a projected 40% in Q4 2003.
Trend #2 = The Personal Video Recorder (PVR)/VOD/iTV Factor. Personal Video Recorder subscribers (e.g., TiVo) were estimated to be in the range of 2.4-35 million in 2002, with 53% noting that they skip through all or most ads.
Trend #3 = The Search Factor. Search engines have become the predominant way consumers find product web sites. Geoff referenced a study showing how US Consumers find product web sites used to research a purchase, December 2002:
Search engine (41%)
Guessed URL (28%)
Online ad (13%)
Word of mouth (13%)
Print ad (10%)
TV ad (9%)
Ad in an e-mail (7%)
Specific e-mail (6%)
Forwarded e-mail (5%)
Outdoor advertising (3%)
Average cost per lead is also advantageous. The average cost for a lead from direct mail is estimated at $9.94, banner ads $2.00, Yellow page ads $1.18, E-mail $0.50, and search marketing $0.29.
Trend #4 = More Channel Choices. The average number of channel choices on the typical American television has grown from 19 in 1985 to 85 in 2003, and it will reach 160 by 2007.
Geoff showed data indicating that TV users spend an average of 31.8 hours per week, watching an average of 13.6 channels selected from a choice of 85. Radio users spend an average of 19.5 hours per week, listening to an average of 3.2 channels out of a choice of 34. Web users spend approximately 7.6 hours per week visiting an average of 17.0 web sites, out of a choice of millions.
What do these four trends have in common? The common theme is that the consumer continually has more choice and more control. Marketing efforts need to be integrated across all media and channels.
By necessity, I’ve had to substantially summarize the volume of information that Geoff covered in his presentation, as well as itemization of each of the individual data sources that Geoff drew upon. Substantially more information is available on emarketer.com, which Geoff describes as “the world’s largest database of Internet and e-business statistics, compiling data from over 1,400 sources.”
AD:TECH San Francisco, June 16-18 2003